By as early as 2025, regular mid-sized electric vehicles are projected to be cheaper than their internal combustion engine counterparts, according to a study conducted by a research center. Scientists developed a model to assess the expected future costs in the transportation sector and explore scenarios for achieving climate protection goals. The study findings from researchers at an energy and climate institute indicate that batteries and fuel cells will dominate in the future, while "electronic fuels" will play a very minor role in road transport.
Starting from 2035, new gasoline or diesel cars will not be registered in the European Union, with the exception of vehicles using electronic fuels. This decision was made by EU member states in March of this year. Therefore, a complete ban on internal combustion engines is no longer a question; the question is which powertrain systems will prevail in the future passenger vehicle sector.
The analysis shows that in the majority of cases in the coming years, electric vehicles will become the cheaper alternative, and this trend will continue to grow in the long term. This is due to the positive technological and economic developments of electric vehicles and the increasing costs of internal combustion engine fuels.
This trend applies not only to cars but also to buses and trucks. "Whether batteries or fuel cells are worthwhile depends on their respective applications and the development of electricity and hydrogen costs. But one thing is clear: in all researched cases, internal combustion engines will be the most expensive choice."
In the passenger vehicle sector, electric vehicles will dominate in new registrations. Batteries will remain dominant until the end of the century. Starting from the 2030s, fuel cells will also gain a significant market share due to lower powertrain and hydrogen production costs. In the commercial vehicle sector, the market growth of electric powertrains will be slightly delayed. Nevertheless, according to researchers, electric vehicles also have a future here, although the balance between batteries and fuel cells may lean more towards hydrogen fuel cells for larger and heavier vehicles.
